Good-news manifesto bad news for ANC
In this article
- Companies and organisations: African National Congress
- People: Jacob Zuma
THE ANC has readied itself for the coming election with an astonishing level of hubris. While the good story it tells in its manifesto is largely true and has always worked in the past to remind voters of the good things the ANC has brought, there are compelling facts and arguments that show the party is overreaching this time, when it asks voters to “go forward together” on the basis of its previous record.
A key reason is that while the story of delivery is largely true — more people in jobs, 3.3-million free houses and 7-million more electricity connections, among other impressive achievements — it is far from completely true. The numbers have been given a far rosier tint than is wise and the ANC should be warned that it will not ring true with the experiences of the poor on the ground.
Nowhere is this truer than on the jobs front, the overriding priority of its last manifesto.
That unreached target of 5-million jobs by 2014 has disappeared without a word and in its place no target for formal employment is set. Instead, 6-million “job opportunities” in the next five years through public employment programmes are promised.
The government’s accounting of public works jobs has been notoriously dubious, but apart from this — and the fact that a large proportion of jobs show a sad lack of imagination and usually amount to picking up litter — these are an important strategy for alleviating poverty and there is no reason 6-million could not be reached.
The manifesto — in the long form — soberly reminds voters of the global financial crisis and its devastating impact on employment. But both the short form and President Jacob Zuma, in his speeches, have chosen to emphasise “that more jobs have been created than before” — a statement that, although true, is nonsense without the broader context, which illustrates that employment creation has been a disaster.
When Mr Zuma took office in May 2009, SA had just reached its highest employment peak, with 13.8-million people in jobs and the economy having enjoyed its longest period of unbroken growth yet. Five years later, employment has only just reached similar levels, with the last Quarterly Labour Force Survey reporting 14-million employed at end-September.
In the interim, Statistics SA has noted, 2.3-million people have joined the working-age population — a clear indicator that the economy, five years later, is less able to absorb labour. It is conceivable, but unlikely, that working people and the poor would not have noticed the increase in hardship that comes with a greater number of dependants in the extended family.
Like the jobs story, the social delivery numbers are also true but do not tell the whole story without their context.
The General Household Survey, which has begun in recent years to track not only service delivery but also the level of satisfaction with services, last year produced some interesting findings.
Firstly, due to continuing migration, a greater proportion of people — 13.2% — live in informal settlements, where dissatisfaction appears highest, especially over sanitation, and where alternatives like the Economic Freedom Front have found the most traction.
Among people living in free government houses, 16% complained about their quality. There was also a substantial proportion of complaints about water quality — only 60% of people said they were satisfied — and electricity and water interruptions.
While these are tangible gripes, there is also a growing sense of grievance among the population over what could be termed “relative deprivation”. The strongest indication of this has been the militant, often violent strikes by the employed, all of whom, taking into account the overall increase in access to basic services, are certainly better off than before 1994.
But as political scientists such as University of Johannesburg professor Steven Friedman have pointed out, a simultaneous rise in both wealth and dissatisfaction is perfectly possible, particularly in a society of high levels of inequality.
“Once the need (for basic services) is satisfied, people measure their circumstances against those they see around them. It does not help to point out to people that they are better off than they used to be,” he said when commenting on the issue last year.
This brings us to the question of a minimum wage policy, the only new ingredient in the ANC manifesto. Apart from the fact that this is only a promise to “investigate” a minimum wage, could such a promise be considered an election winner? The answer is, nobody knows. Since its inclusion in the manifesto comes from a concession to alliance partner Cosatu — which, given its internal turmoil, needs something to present to workers to justify its continued presence in the alliance — there is no indication of the extent to which voters think this is important.
This is because it all depends on what level the minimum would be pitched at. It would need to be at least R3,000, the median wage in the economy according to the General Household Survey. In Cosatu’s own deliberations on the minimum wage last year, it arrived at a range of R4,000-R6,000 a month. These levels are not unreasonable but would be unaffordable to a large number of employers.
The National Development Plan recommended using a poverty line of R418 per person per month in 2009 prices — about R2,000 a month for a family of four. Since the government cannot readily argue that the employed should live only a few steps from poverty, it would be politically difficult to set a minimum wage on the poverty line.
In short, from a vote-winning perspective, the level of the minimum wage is a debate best avoided for now, with the result that it cannot be effectively used to persuade voters of the ANC’s intentions to reduce inequality.
The good-news story of the manifesto reflects what appears to be a genuine hubris among the ANC’s most senior leaders.
The campaign, usually one of widespread interaction with voters, will likely burst that bubble as South Africans do not usually hold back with their opinions.
Nkandla
Julius Sello Malema (born 3 March 1981) is the leader of the Economic Freedom Fighters, a South African political movement, which he founded in July 2013. He is also a former president of the African National Congress Youth League. Malema was a member of the ANC until his expulsion from the party in April 2012. Malema occupies a notably controversial position in South African public and political life; having risen to prominence with his support for African National Congress president, and later President of South Africa, Jacob Zuma. He has been described by both Zuma[ and the Premier of Limpopo Province as the “future leader” of South Africa. Less favourable portraits paint him as a “reckless populist” with the potential to destabilise South Africa and to spark racial conflict.[5]
He was convicted of hate speech in March 2010[6][7][8] and again in September 2011.[9] In November 2011 he was found guilty of sowing divisions within the ANC and, in conjunction with his two-year suspended sentence in May 2010, was suspended from the party for five years.] In 2011, he was also convicted of hate speech after singing the song “Dubula iBunu” (Shoot the Boer). On 4 February 2012 the appeal committee of the African National Congress announced that it found no reason to “vary” a decision of the disciplinary committee taken in 2011,] but did find evidence in aggravation of circumstances, leading them to impose the harsher sentence of expulsion from the ANC. On 25 April 2012 Malema lost an appeal to have his expulsion from the ANC overturned, as this exhausted his final appeal, his expulsion took immediate effect. In September 2012 he was charged with fraud and moneylaundering.[12] He appeared before the Polokwane Magistrates Court in November 2012 to face these charges, plus an additional charge of racketeering. The case was postponed to 23 April 2013, and then to 20 June. The State has proposed the trial date be set for 18 –to 29 November 2013
South African President Jacob Zuma has withdrawn his claim for damages against a Zapiro cartoon published in the Sunday Times of South Africa and agreed to pay half of its legal costs. In the cartoon, Zuma, who was acquitted of a rape charge in 2006, was shown loosening his trousers while since expelled ANC Youth League president Julius Malema, Congress of South African Trade Unions general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi, South African Communist Party general secretary Blade Nzimande and ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe hold Lady Justice down, saying: “Go for it, boss.”
“President Zuma did the right thing in withdrawing the case. This bodes very well for media freedom,” Dario Milo, who represented the Sunday Times, said. “It is to be hoped that he swiftly withdraws his other 12 live cases against the media. This will send out an important signal that the president respects the right of the media to criticise his conduct.”
The withdrawal ends a four-year saga that began in 2008 when Zuma sued for R4-million in damages to his reputation and R1 million for injury to his dignity. Recently Zuma had reduced his claims against cartoonist Zapiro from R5-million to R100 000 with an apology. The case was set to be heard in the high court today (Monday).
Zuma started proceedings in December 2010 against Avusa, the cartoonist Jonathan “Zapiro” Shapiro and former Sunday Times Editor-in-chief Mondli Makhanya in a summons issued in the South Gauteng High Court in Johannesburg. With Mangaung (the ANC’s elective conference) around the corner, President Zuma’s legal team seem to be doing all they can to avoid a damaging legal showdown with cartoonist Jonathan Shapiro over his Lady Justice rape cartoon.
The dramatic changes to the claim come two years after various delays on the part of Zuma’s lawyers. “It was due to start on Thursday and that date has been in place since February. But they’ve used the same tactic that they’ve used in other cases, where they sue and then they make all kinds of adjustments and changes – it was clear that they didn’t want to go to court ahead of Mangaung,” Shapiro told the M&G. “But we dug our heels in and said we had to get into court and we’re confident of our case.”
There just hasn’t seemed to be a good time for the president to take on Shapiro, or Zapiro, as his pen name goes. With Zuma being pitted against his deputy Kgalema Motlanthe ahead of the ANC’s elective conference in December, he now faces a similarly sensitive period where he would want to avoid a court appearance and the negative attention it might attract.
33 RESPONSES TO “LESSONS IN SPEECHWRITING: OBAMA ON MADIBA”
I think you credit B.O. with too many literary skills.
The praise goes to his speechwriter, Ben Rhodes.
Rhodes is the man with the pen skills, he comes from a fiction writing background, which is just about the right experience for political persuasion, n’est ce pas?
Rhodes penned all the stirring propaganda that Obama’s wealthy Wall Street backers required to oil their man’s way into high office.
Rhodes had Obama mouthing stirring speeches about democracy, transparency, freedom of speech, closing Guantanamo, human rights and speech.
Once Obama was in office – and had bailed out his rich Wall $t. buddies – he broke his eloquent promise about Guantanamo, proceeded to go after more democratic whistle-blowers than any previous president (Manning, Snowden and others), entrenched illegal drone wars and suspended due process after arrogating to himself the right of presidential assassination.
Obama is no ‘man of the people’ as Mandela was and is arrogant to try and liken himself to that true democrat. Obama is a man of the 1% elite and demonstrably serves their interests.
If ‘injustice weighs heavily on his heart’ let Obomber look to the corporatocracy and ‘dollar democracy’ that that is America, where the poorest of his own people are starting to see through the fine-sounding words penned by a well-paid propagandist on a nifty laptop.
It was wonderful to listen to Obama. No doubt his speech writers have a bottomless well of ideas to choose from, but knowing how to put them together to make the desired effect deserve praise. Knowing how to read is also invaluable.
Orwell’s comment sums it up pretty well.
I’d also give great speeches if the world’s greatest oppressor nation needed me to.
If we have people like you who have deep knowledge on speeches in government, how is it possible that our president always gives the most boring ones?
#George Orwell is correct. Most high profile people, especially politicians, have small teams of writers who craft and recraft and who then submit to the policy people for clearance. Few politicians or high flyers have the time to write their own speeches. Even fewer have the ability, and they know it. It is a time-consuming, complex process. Turrel’s analysis left out the fact that the speech was also a strategic triumph, placing Obama and the USA squarely at the centre of the world’s stage during the biggest event we have seen in recent times. He got bigger press than our own President – deservedly so.
Thanks. I’ll try that at my daughters wedding.
Let’s agree the speech was well crafted, but let’s also agree, it was well articulated with all the necessary oratory.
@Orwell,I am shocked that you didn’t say that Stephen King was writing Obama’s speeches. Obama is known to stay up late at night researching and writing his speeches, his wife has to come get him to take him to bed. This wasn’t a speech that someone else wrote, and Obama read it like you are suggesting. This speech was an Obama creation with his trade mark.
Moreover, you spoke of Obama bailing out Wall St, the reason why the US government bailed out Wall St. because most the pension funds had their money tied up on Wall St, and if these companies had gone under, most the pension funds would have been wiped out. Many of these companies would have gone under and million of jobs would have been lost.
Finally, there is no comparison with being the president of the US and that of SA. The president of the US has to make decisions that have an effect on the world and the president of SA decisions have very little effect on the world. The only reason you are trying to compare Obama to Mandela because of their color. As far as Snowden and Manning, both of these people should be sent to prison for their crimes. Snowden is in Russia a country that has know to kill their spies that jump ship. The base in Cuba should be left open for the suicide bombers to find paradise there.
i like. like, like!!
and now i wanna study rhetoric!
When listening to Obama’s speech, the manner of presentation was very much the southern American Baptist preacher haranguing his congregation. The words were well-written, if rather OTT. When he said, “And while I will always fall short of Madiba’s example, he makes me want to be a better man” I found myself asking, “Well, why do you fall short? Why do you only want to be a better man, why aren’t you one?” That is one of the dangers of that manner of speaking: some people simply aren’t mesmerised. The statement, “And like America’s Founding Fathers, he would erect a constitutional order to preserve freedom for future generations” was not really true by my reckoning. Did Mandela really do that on his own? Has it really preserved freedoms? Was he some sort of dictator? Was he not simply the poster-boy of a whole group of people leading the fight? Obama seems, to me, to confuse Mandela with a dictatorial African chief.
However, technically, as you say, it was a very well-constructed speech. Not quite as much a call to action as Churchill’s “We shall fight them on the beaches…” nor as spine-tingling, but still very good. He has a persuasive speech-writer, certainly.
@george orwell, you seem a bit stingy to credit obama, but quite un-proportionally lavish towards benjamin rhodes, as if BO only started using great oratory when he became president. you may be au fait also that BO’s initial speechwriter was jon favreau. favreau’s obviously no slouch either, one of his books has been translated into movie.
thru pete sauza’s photographs, you may have seen BO’s handwriting on many of the draft speeches that he has crafted together with his presidential team. he is very hands-on when it comes to his speeches. his speechwriters are very competent too. and remarkably, they have studied his cadences very well.
ben rhodes was not yet in obama’s team when he delivered his timeless speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston, MA. when obama would convince crowds in South Side of Chicago about the need to organise, he did not have speechwriters then.
this is a highly accomplished man, who has used great oratory for the better part of his adult life, without speechwriters. his oratory may have now collided with the hard realities of governing.
but lets not pretend that he plays no part in crafting his own speeches. you may know some examples of individuals who obviously play no part in their’s.
i will not comment about the promises he made, but remember he’s only a US president, not a king. he cannot override congress, especially on things that would leave other Democrats vulnerable. and the guantanamo issue is…
OB’s speechwriters are brilliant, as they have mastered the subject(OB) and have been blessed with the fortune that they understand and play to his strengths, namely his oratory skills.Brilliant speaker!!
I think world democracy will only progress when we learn not to be emotionally swayed by noble words.
We need to judge leaders by their actions – not their well-crafted speeches, forged by salaried speech-writers.
Thankfully, Americans are slowly starting to wake up to this.
They realise that however inspiring Obama’s memes and poetic phrases are, the reality is that this president signed in the anti-democratic ‘Detention Without Trial’ (the NDA Act 2012) and actively entrenched the illegal remote-control drone wars, that have mistakenly bombed civilian women, children and wedding parties.
Ironic and sad for the politically-correct Wall Street Bail Out President, who has rendered hollow his Nobel Peace Prize as he’s sought to spread American corporatocracy with the might of the world’s biggest army.
No amount of unctuous rhetoric will paper over the moral chasm between Obomber and Mandela.
Now, respected US magazine ‘The Nation’ at least shows a little compassion and imagines:
“What if a Drone Strike Hit an American Wedding Party?”
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/12/if-a-drone-strike-hit-an-american-wedding-wed-ground-our-fleet/282373/
I think your analysis just shows one thing: Public Relations. Tugging on the emotional strings because it is easier to say what you think you want the audience to hear(and I don’t doubt that Obama knew what his audience wanted). If Obama is a product of the work of Nelson Mandela then I have to question how Mandela is interpreted outside of South Africa or/and I have to question the credibility of the claims of these people claiming to be the leaders of the world. If Robert Mugabe used the same sentences, would they have the same value? We have a world leader assassinating people in a fashion similar to the apartheid era Generals and Politicians but claiming to uphold the ideas and inspirations of Mandela. Let us not remember that 20 years ago these same techniques were used to discredit Mandela. I do thank you for the insight though. I just have a question, but do speech writers actively part take in the propaganda machine, or do they do it as a job that needs to be done? Are they aware of the lies they write about? Because just by taking apart Obama’s speech, we can identify the hollow statements and factual omissions that would make him seem not so grand.
In the book: The Politics of Hope, the words of Barack Obama, Charlotte Higgins describes him in her Foreword as the new Cicero. She also points out all the attributes described above but also the fact that he seems to do most of the speechwriting work himself. A Fact confirmed by the head of his team, Jon Favreau.
Because I Said So
I must get myself a copy!
This is what I tweeted midway in his oration:
“Obama commands a voice of the king mustering a paltry cohort against ruthless legions transiting from alternative universe.”
Good script writing not withstanding, compare the verbal delivery to most other speakers at that event, especially our local clown JZ.
Of course it is, you make the speech to be understood in many ways.
I have told my friends that Obama was the best person to praise Madiba
A good analysis: contains information that teachers of language can use with their students to produce stirring speeches. Only one question in mind: Are there no Ben Rhodes in South Africa?
Anna – so you think if Zuma has a brilliant speechwriter who chanelled fine-sounding verbal upliftment via Zuma’s mouth, that this would improve/change the facts on the ground?
My point is that words uttered by presidents (whether self or ghost-authored) are always partisan propaganda.
Hitler was also great at making noble-sounding, stirring speeches.
Whether he wrote them himself or hired a canny scriptwriter is neither here nor there. The effect is the same.
The world needs less spin, more reality.
Presidents don’t individually hold the power, they are essentially frontmen for partisan political machines.
B.O. is the charming Public Relations doorman at the front of store.
Back of the store, little has changed since Bush’s time, in terms of US military and surveillance, etc.
Obama has gotten away with far more than Bush ever would have.
If Bush had ushered in ‘Detention Without Trial’ as Obama has done – the law that saw Madiba behind bars – there would have been such an outcry.
Obama is a well-heeled establishment man with a nice turn of phrase.
He’s not freed the poor or led any revolutions.
Instead, he’s entrenched the 1% elite.
Great to read, Rob Turrell! I firmly believe that quality of public speaking, rhetoric, is an index to the quality of leadership. And the quality of the auditors as well. Ethos, logs, and pathos – character, reason and feeling.
What also strikes me about Obama’s speech is its sense of reach – compass – time and space. The greater part of the 20th century, and a locality and a name, as well as global reach.
What the Obama bashers fail to recognize is that Obama is the leader, and a leader’s job is to lead. One of the tools of leading is to inspire people to believe in a purpose, and to get on with it to achieve that purpose. It is not the job of the leader to be the wall street guy, to be the guard at Gauntanemo, to be the central banker.
Critics of Obama need to acknowledge that when he stepped into the breach, the situation was, and still is sick. The disease did not start in 2000, 1990, or 1980. It was started back in the 1920′s and 30′s with The New Deal, which created the habit of printing and spending one’s way out of trouble. When Obama took over, the USA was in a state of crises, and crises management was what was required, and I believe Bush Junior did this by authorising bail outs in the initial stages.
No person has the power to close the taps of easy money. Think of your own spending and D:E ratios. As far I see it the only way out is to wean off it. I hope for all of our sakes that there is enough time left to do this.
I do not think anyone apart from George Bush can just take a speech and read it without vetting the content. You try to bring in Winston ChUrchil and all the boring pretenders; here it from me apart from Martin Luther King, no one, no single American president ever delivers a speech as good as Obama. A written speech is dead unless brought to life by a powerful delivery.
@Munlo, one must not forget Lincoln and Obama is a big fan of Lincoln. Orwell wants to blame the drone attacks on Obam and call him a bad guy, but how about the other side that are blowing up building to go to paradise? As far as bailing out Wall St, million of Americans were at risk of losing their pension if these companies had went under and the government did the right thing to protect these people. Orwell never mention that the repeal of the Glass Steagal act is the cause of the meltdown and Obama had nothing to do with this. Actually, it was Clinton that signed the bill to repeal the Glass Steagal Act and not Bush.
Obama did not bail on Guantanamo. It was the Republicans in congress who would not fund the transfer of prisoners. Please do a little research before making false charges. One of the first things Obama did in 2009 was to issue an executive order on Gitmo. However, if there is no money, nothing can be done. But, I am hoping that he can get it done before he ends his second term.
As for his speeches, Obama has final say.
george orwell # – I think you need to educate yourself on us governance. Obama does not pass bill/laws. If congress does not, then he has nothing to sign, and nothing to implement. Congress refused to sign his jobs bill. Congress (House Republicans) has tried to thwart him every step of the way.
Giving new meaning to ‘Do-Nothing’ Congress
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/giving-new-meaning-do-nothing-congress
A complete timeline on Republican obstructionism
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/a-complete-timeline-of-re_b_4074372.html
This is NOT democracy at work – it is authoritarianism by one side.
Eish, if we are this shallow to fall onto the words of someone who clearly does not write his own speeches, then we are fool-ish. Anyone can read what someone else has written I mean that is why all American Presidents rely on their speech writers. The question that needs to be asked what are Obama’s authentic thoughts even when he is attending a memorial service for a dearly beloved.
The President of the United States does not fly to South Africa in 737s. A Boeing 737 has a maximum range of approximately 5,000 km, insufficient to cross the Atlantic safely. You must have meant 747. Air Force One is a 747. I do not know many other aircraft accompanied Air Force One.
Hitler was an excellent speaker with powerful delivery, too.
Talk is cheap.
Judge people by their actions, not their words.
By their fruits shall ye know them.
Obama speeach is indeed the rhetoric America has become, talking about freedom whilst reversing “real freedom” for people outside America.
@Tofolux, Obama is known to stay up late at night writing his speeches and don’t forget that Obama is a product of the world best university Harvard.
@Fergie, if he “stay up late at night” then why is his govt so different to his speeches. Lets take some examples to make the point, a shutdown of his govt (in this era of modernism?) why the drone bombing killing millions of innocent people, why NSA,Gautanomo Bay, withdrawal of food stamps for the poorest of the poor, the health insurance crisi, police violence on young black men in particular, the corrupt judiciary, the wars on sovereign states or the gradual and alarming erosion of individual rights. It is also a well known fact that his era of Presidency has been the most violent and the most brutal. And yet, against all these and many more facts, you still believe the bumbling rhetoric? wow
Whilst Obama may have a speech writer, just remember that he is also an author (makes more money from selling his books than he gets from being POTUS), is an advocate and a prolific orator!